🔗 Share this article

Preamble

The typical complications of round-robin tennis often result in at this point of the ATP Finals fans frequently find themselves confused, searching around for a mathematical tool and striving to determine the complex permutations of qualification. But today's game between Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime, mercifully, is straightforward. It’s a straight shootout: the successful player earns a final four battle against Carlos Alcaraz at this championship finale; the unsuccessful competitor is eliminated.

Zverev is the favourite for this: the third-ranked player is the more experienced competitor, has previously won at this event on two prior occasions and is ahead in their direct encounters with six victories against three defeats, having won both their previous matches on an covered hard surface.

However … this particular court on which Auger-Aliassime has claimed the majority of his titles, he is in great form after his compelling comeback against Shelton on Wednesday and he defeated Zverev in the US Open initial phase in late summer. Furthermore, the court pace is quicker in the host city than at the US Open venue, which works even more in the Canadian's favor.

If Zverev holds back, as he did against the Italian, and Felix aggressively challenges the German with his powerful serves and bold strategy, there is a strong chance the 25-year-old Canadian – the former prodigy who was earlier slated in front of the younger champions to replace the Big Three – who secures the uncertain distinction of competing with the world No 1 tomorrow.

Action commences: at about 8.30pm local time, 19:30 Greenwich Mean Time.