The typical figure of daily homicides each month in the country has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by recent official data. Nevertheless, security specialists have advised that murder numbers might not signal enhanced national safety.
Marked Decline in Per-Day Figures
Officials reported an mean of almost 55 murders a day in last November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September. This information was delivered by the chief of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.
“The result in killings that we’ve had in these past months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the smallest figure of homicides were registered for any November in the last decade.
Historical Background and Government Plan
Intense drug cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s highly militarised efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent years. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.
That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than the US. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety approach for an seemingly more pronounced drop in killings this year.
At a news briefing in August, the President declared: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to continue working at it every day.”
The main elements of the President's security plan encompass:
- Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
- Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
- Increased collaboration between various authorities.
Analyst Caution and Data Concerns
But, public safety analysts urged caution that focusing solely on homicide numbers to assess the situation of peace was misleading. This is particularly true in light of the increase in other crimes such as abductions.
“This would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”
Per the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.
“Numbers on homicides is no longer useful for assessing the reality of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the desire to properly identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through abductions.”
Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of everyday homicides was similarly problematic because it could mask days when there were particularly high numbers of murders.
“Using the per-day mean renders surges of violent crime unseen,” he stated.
Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success
An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between last October and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, according to official data. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.
“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.
Persistent Violence and Public Frustration
Yet in spite of these measures, Mexico is still beset by extreme bloodshed, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the last 12 months.
Weeks later, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to show their anger at corruption and narco-violence.
“The administration shares [data] in a manner to build a story of safety. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas remarked.
