From Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”