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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to host the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.