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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.