Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Drop of the Goal Scoring
A key narrative of the EPL this campaign has been the decline of scoring in open play and the way sides are netting more from set-plays as an alternative.
Looking at goal sources to matchday 11 last season, we note a drop of 39 goals in open play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, giving us 13 fewer altogether.
Examining overall statistics, the number of shots clubs are making have seen a staggering 370 fewer in open play than at this stage previously.
And despite the notable jump in dead-ball scores, there have actually been only two additional attempts produced from these situations outside of spot-kicks, showing how effective sides have been at discovering methods to convert from set-pieces.
Goal Statistics Show a Story
301 total goals recorded in 110 matches to date calculates at 2.74 scores per fixture, which if it continued for the entire campaign would be the lowest for half a decade, back in 2020-21 (2.69 average).
Yet merely under 200 goals coming in open-play averages out 1.78 each match and is tracking to be the smallest for 16 seasons, from 16 years ago (1.76).
That campaign is also the sole English top-flight season to witness scoring at a higher rate from dead-balls without spot-kicks than the current rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79).
What Clubs Account for This Change?
In terms of scoring from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have recorded by far the biggest decrease, scoring only four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 less than at this stage last season.
Excluding Wolverhampton, the Premier League's fall in open-play scoring is largely a London phenomenon, with five of the London's seven clubs recording a minimum of five fewer goals from open-play than the prior season.
To be fair, this is primarily due to them scoring lots of goals at the beginning of last season instead of them really struggling to find the net in open play this season.
At the same time Manchester City have seen the most significant jump, with almost every one of their 23 goals to date originating in open-play.
Dead-Ball Dominance
We've compared newly promoted sides with the relegated sides that they superseded. Sunderland Sunderland have netted three extra scores in open play than Southampton achieved in their opening 11 matches en route to demotion last season.
In terms of goals scored from set-pieces (aside from spot-kicks), the Gunners and the Blues have recorded the most significant jump, with the two clubs compensating for the five less scores that they've scored in open-play with the same number from dead-ball chances.
United have recorded twice as many goals from set-plays as they achieved in the 11 games the previous campaign prior to Ruben Amorim assumed control, while Sunderland once more prove more effective at converting than the club they replaced they superseded.
City don't seem to have got the trend about netting additional goals from set-pieces, since they've recorded three less than last season, like the Reds, although this could be because of the altered approach they have tried to implement.
League-Wide Trends
Six clubs – the Gunners, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and West Ham – represent the current campaign's top trend-setters by netting less scores from open play and additional from set-plays, while Man City represent the only side to go against the grain up to now by achieving the complete reverse.
It will be interesting to watch if teams continue to depend greatly on set-plays as the season goes on or if they regain their all-round creativity and start scoring increased totals in open play too.
