Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost lengthy war in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, apparently.

Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.

While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.

However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost several years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.

Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in the summer yielded no concrete results.

Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.

The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.

So, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Sara Clark
Sara Clark

Lena is a seasoned agile coach and software developer with over a decade of experience in transforming teams and delivering high-quality digital solutions.